NBA Finals Preview

Let me first start off by saying thanks to Max for letting me write a guest column (hopefully one of many, depending on how awful this turns out). We talk sports all the time and obviously I thought that the idea of him writing a sports blog would be great because he’s so opinionated and passionate about anything sports related, even snoozefests like cycling and Formula 1 racing (thank God he doesn’t like NASCAR or I might have to throw a pizza in his face).

So anyway, back to what I was supposed to be writing about, the NBA Finals. I decided to write about basketball because he’s already written 3 posts about the Stanley Cup Finals, which is quite understandable (we’re both wingnuts). Returning to David Stern’s playground, at the end of the season, somehow his two favorite playmates, Kobe and Bron Bron, are not the last ones standing. Even though for the entire regular season it seemed more likely than Yao Ming getting hurt, the two puppet buddies are not battling for the title. The Black Mamba and the Lakers (of course one of them had to make it, the NBA can’t stand to have another team like the Spurs in it) will face Superman and the Magic. This is not a bad matchup, both teams have their respective superstars and great role players, but it’s not the marquee matchup everyone drooled over. And you know what, I’m okay with that. When Kobe and Lebron have faced each other, it has never lived up to the hype, it has always disappointed. It’s like a movie you expect to be great and when you finally go, you have such high expectations, it’s never as good as you hoped (anyone remember spider-man 3? seriously why was he dancing?… why?). Every time they play against each other Kobe is sick and they both don’t play well. I think this will be a better series between two good teams, not just two good players. The Cavs are just not a very good team. They had a great regular season, because Lebron has gotten even better, to the point where it’s almost ridiculous. It was enough in the regular season, but the playoffs are entirely different. You need your role players to step up and the Cavs just don’t have the role players to win it all. So enough about the Cavs, they lost, they cried, they’re done (I’m from Detroit, if you can’t tell, I don’t like Cleveland). Let’s move on to the matchups.

1. Point Guard: Derek Fisher vs. Rafer Alston
Neither has been very consistent, but Alston has the ability to have a big game like the one against Cleveland when he scored 26.
Edge: Magic
2. Shooting Guard: Kobe Bryant vs. Courtney Lee
Well, I think you already know this one. I’ll go with one of the best guards in history.
Edge: Lakers
3. Small Forward: Trevor Ariza vs. Hedo Turkoglu
This is probably the closest matchup. Turkoglu has been the Magic’s Mr. Big Shot all season long, but Ariza is becoming one of the best defenders in the league (9th in steals this season mainly coming off the bench). I give the edge to Turkoglu because he can shoot from anywhere and he’s been huge all year. Edge: Magic
4. Power Forward: Pau Gasol vs. Rashard Lewis
Pau Gasol is one of the most versatile 7-footers in the league. He may have trouble covering Lewis behind the 3-point line, but he’s been efficient on the offensive end and if he gets the opportunities, he should be able to take advantage. Edge: Lakers
5. Center: Andrew Bynum vs. Dwight Howard
Bynum hasn’t been as good since coming back from knee surgery, but even at his best he would be nowhere near Howard. Bynum has gotten into foul trouble too often and Howard is coming off a dominating performance against Cleveland in game 6 (40 points, 14 rebounds) and is even shooting better from the line (70% against Cleveland). As if it wasn’t already obvious, he’s one of the best, if not the best center in the league. Edge: Magic
6. Bench
Each team has plenty of shooters on their respective benches. I’ll focus on their most important bench players, Lamar Odom and Mickael Pietrus. Pietrus plays good defense and is a pretty good 3-point shooter (40% for the playoffs, 47% against Cleveland), but Odom has the potential to be a game-changer. Odom has averaged 12 points and 9.5 rebounds these playoffs, but he has not been very consistent. He’s had a few big games, but also a few rotten ones. The Lakers are 8-2 when Odom scores 10 or more points. If he has a couple of big games, it will help the Lakers immensely. He is the x-factor. The Lakers bench also has more experience having been here last year. Edge: Lakers
7. Coaching: Phil Jackson vs. Stan Van Gundy
Jackson has 9 rings. Van Gundy’s had a great year, but I’ll have to go with experience. And besides Van Gundy sounds like a mouse with bronchitis (how can you respect him?).
Edge: Lakers

I think this series will be better than last years’, although it isn’t a classic matchup. The Magic won both meetings in the regular season (106-103 and 109-103). However, Jameer Nelson is out, which is a huge loss for the Magic. There is speculation that he may play, but I doubt it. They replaced him with Rafer Alston, but Nelson had 28 and 27 in the Magic’s two wins. He’ll be missed in the finals. The Magic won both regular season meetings, but I think things will go a little differently in the Finals. Everyone loves to compare Dwight Howard and Shaq (they both played for the Magic, they’re both dominating centers, and they both have the same nickname), so I’d like to bring up one point. Shaq led the Magic to the NBA Finals in 1995 averaging 25.7 points and 11.9 rebounds (Howard is averaging 21.7 points and 15.4 rebounds) and they got swept by the Houston Rockets. Like this Magic team, Shaq’s team was young, inexperienced, and made it to the Finals after an early playoff exit the year before. I think the Magic’s inexperience will show in this series. The Cavs team from 2006 is another example. Lebron took them to the Finals, they were hot, they had no experience, and they got dismantled by the Spurs. I just think the Lakers will find a way to get it done. They were here last year and I think they’ve learned from it. How often does a team have to lose first before it can win? Another worry for the Magic is Dwight Howard’s temper. He has 5 technical fouls this post-season and if he picks up 2 more, he’ll be suspended for a game, which would absolutely destroy the Magic. We will have to see if he can maintain his composure on the biggest stage. I think Kobe will be the closer everyone believes he is and the Lakers will win this year. Orlando’s immaturity will show and LA will take care of busy when they need to, but it will be close.

Prediction: Lakers in six

(President Obama picked the Lakers too and hey he was right about the Tar Heels)

I guess it’s the general consensus now that Lebron is the best player in the world, but after this series Kobe will be a better winner (with or without Shaq), and that’s what counts. It should be a good NBA Finals, I’m looking forward to it…as long as Hubie Brown doesn’t call any games (fingers crossed).